Employment Statistics by School - C/O 2020 rolling out + C/O 2012-2019 data

Discuss comparisons of various school choices and the various metrics that inform them, including rankings, student life, location, etc.
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UVA2B
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Re: Employment Statistics by School - C/O 2019 rolling out + C/O 2012-2017 data

Post by UVA2B » Wed May 20, 2020 10:32 pm

Great work Stranger. Since the majority of these schools are regional, it might be interesting to also group them by region/feeder markets to gauge pre-COVID market health. Knowing what the PNW or SE is doing (broadly) by approximation of how UW or UGA are doing might show some interesting trendlines.

Then again, COVID is going to drastically affect all future stats and outcomes, so that statistical analysis may be a relic at this point.

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Re: Employment Statistics by School - C/O 2019 rolling out + C/O 2012-2017 data

Post by Stranger » Thu May 21, 2020 1:26 am

UVA2B wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 10:32 pm
Great work Stranger. Since the majority of these schools are regional, it might be interesting to also group them by region/feeder markets to gauge pre-COVID market health. Knowing what the PNW or SE is doing (broadly) by approximation of how UW or UGA are doing might show some interesting trendlines.

Then again, COVID is going to drastically affect all future stats and outcomes, so that statistical analysis may be a relic at this point.
Really getting a grasp of regional health would be an interesting project, though I might want raw numbers instead of percentages for that. It also takes some fine tuning. Duke doesn't place enough in the South to merit inclusion as a proxy for regional health. Vanderbilt's NALP reports show a wide spread with somewhat heavier placement in the South, so they're probably safer to include in an average if enough other schools go in. And do we even use the same categories? The 501+ firms will have big NY/DC/CA skew even in schools far from those places. Would aiming to capture midlaw and regional biglaw be a better metric (say, 51-500), at least outside of NY/DC/CA?

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Re: Employment Statistics by School - C/O 2019 rolling out + C/O 2012-2017 data

Post by MT Cicero » Sat May 23, 2020 3:06 pm

Stranger wrote:
Thu May 07, 2020 1:08 pm
64Fl wrote:
Thu May 07, 2020 7:04 am
Northwestern gets such a raw deal in these statistics. This year is -4.7%, but the great outcomes are actually probably UP. That 10% JD/MBA class really skews things, because the Kellogg MBA leads to some very nice gigs. Last year only 8 students went into JD advantage roles. This year it was 21. If you include JD advantage jobs, it go 79.0% (C/O 2018) to 80.0% (C/O 2019) (+1.0%).

In comparison, the other T13 placed far fewer grads in JD advantage gigs: Columbia (3), NYU (5), Chicago (2), Penn (7), Virginia (6), Stanford (9), Cornell (4), Harvard (24), Berkeley (5), Michigan (4), Yale (7). Harvard's number isn't even that good considering its class size is 2.5x as big as Northwestern.
This is a perennial Northwestern complaint - and we can use the numbers they provide to show the rate change between the full class and those not earning MBAs (feel free to do so - I may get to it later). But the JD Advantage category is also a black box that can contain amazing results and mediocrity in entirely unclear proportion. I get that for Northwestern JD-MBAs, its usually good, just like it is at Yale. But How good an outcome is it at USC? Notre Dame? Wake Forest? Villanova?

Unlike the four categories we combine in this thread, it's unclear whether JD Advantage represents jobs likely to set you up to pay off your loans in the bulk of cases across schools. It's kinda like "business" in that regard.
I agree with all this, and Northwestern helps folks out by separating out their JD-MBA stats, which usually post a couple weeks later. I keep track of them annually, and c/o 2019 had a particularly large spread between the numbers based on JD-MBAs only going into law jobs at 33% (9/27)--all biglaw jobs. They have kept the streak of 0 JD-MBAs going to clerkships going back at least 9 years, which is as long as I have data.

This year, removing JD-MBAs from both the numerator and the denominator and looking only at JDs, you get 76.1% BL + FC, which is 4.8% higher than when you include the JD-MBAs. Oddly, last year the JD-MBAs helped the overall number (only be 0.3% though), since over 75% of JD-MBAs went into biglaw. That was the only time there has been a "negative" spread with the JD-MBAs included going back to at least 2011.

So, no need to try and read tea leaves re JD Advantage at Northwestern when you can just look at the JD stats. Incidentally, for JD-only, Northwestern c/o 2019 had its highest BL, BL+FC, and FTLT Legal Employment numbers dating back to at least 2011. It also had its lowest FC number since 2012.

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Re: Employment Statistics by School - C/O 2019 rolling out + C/O 2012-2017 data

Post by Stranger » Sun Jul 05, 2020 11:06 pm

Stranger wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 8:44 pm
NYU is currently linking to their own table of the stats rather than the ABA report, which they don't have linked yet. This required more multiplication than my usual calculation, but I'm pretty sure it's accurate. Utah Law has its report up, but fell below the 10% cutoff. ASU, BYU, Cardozo, Kentucky, and Santa Clara are still missing reports. Beyond that, no school that posted over 16.5% last year remains (but I could always be missing somewhere that had a big jump). I'll take another pass at this later to go further down the list, but I'm confident that the bulk of the important results are listed already.
The ABA finally appears to have its reports up, which I've used to find the numbers on those last five scofflaws.

ASU - 13.5% (+3.0%)
BYU - 22.5% (+7.1%)
Cardozo - 21.4% (+0.4%)
Kentucky - 21.5% (+2.1%)
Santa Clara - 15.2% (-1.4%)

Anyone who feels like digging is welcome to find other schools that may have snuck up into marginal respectability, and I'll add them to the OP.

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Re: Employment Statistics by School - C/O 2019 rolling out + C/O 2012-2017 data

Post by Stranger » Mon Apr 05, 2021 1:20 pm

New employment statistics are rolling out! Here's the first few I've seen:

Michigan - 67.5% (-0.6%)
Wisconsin - 17.5% (-5.1%)


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Re: Employment Statistics by School - C/O 2019 rolling out + C/O 2012-2017 data

Post by DankHill » Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:43 pm

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Re: Employment Statistics by School - C/O 2019 rolling out + C/O 2012-2017 data

Post by Stranger » Tue Apr 06, 2021 10:29 pm

DankHill wrote:
Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:43 pm
Stranger wrote:
Mon Apr 05, 2021 1:20 pm
New employment statistics are rolling out! Here's the first few I've seen:

Michigan - 67.5% (-0.6%)
Wisconsin - 17.5% (-5.1%)
I'm unfamiliar with the intricacies of this data, but that seems... not bad for the COVID era? Honestly, it seems like statistical noise to me.
Most single year shifts are noise. When I had more time, I was putting all this into a spreadsheet and calculating five year weighted averages. I would agree that the Michigan and Yale changes are noise, Wisconsin I would want to check the past few years to evaluate.

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Re: Employment Statistics by School - C/O 2019 rolling out + C/O 2012-2017 data

Post by DankHill » Tue Apr 06, 2021 10:39 pm

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Re: Employment Statistics by School - C/O 2019 rolling out + C/O 2012-2017 data

Post by UVA2B » Tue Apr 06, 2021 11:27 pm

Notably, the big law firms hiring at Yale and Michigan did not go to hell in the same way that big firms that hire from Wisconsin potentially went to hell. There’s some overlap to be sure, but it’s very likely the markets were squeezed differently based on attorney headcount and vague notions of prestige that inform far too much legal hiring.

The firms that recruit ‘elite’ law school students likely hurt way less by the contraction of the market, to the extent the market actually contracted, so the expected hiring pinch is probably in those schools placing 10-20% in these categories than it is for the schools placing 60-80%.

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Re: Employment Statistics by School - C/O 2019 rolling out + C/O 2012-2017 data

Post by DankHill » Wed Apr 07, 2021 12:46 pm

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Re: Employment Statistics by School - C/O 2019 rolling out + C/O 2012-2017 data

Post by Stranger » Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:41 pm

Stanford - 72.0% (-3.8%)
Harvard - 70.9% (-3.2%)
Chicago - 88.7% (+9.0%)
Virginia - 82.9% (+4.6%)
Berkeley - 67.4% (-2.4%)
Vanderbilt - 60.0% (-1.9%)

Mild drops for Stanford, Harvard, Berkeley, and Vanderbilt. Decent gain for Virginia. And holy shit, look at that gain for Chicago!

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Re: Employment Statistics by School - C/O 2019 rolling out + C/O 2012-2017 data

Post by pancakes3 » Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:04 am

i feel like FC numbers need to break it out to fedsoc and non-fedsoc

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Re: Employment Statistics by School - C/O 2019 rolling out + C/O 2012-2017 data

Post by Stranger » Fri Apr 09, 2021 1:48 pm

pancakes3 wrote:
Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:04 am
i feel like FC numbers need to break it out to fedsoc and non-fedsoc
While that would be quite useful in evaluating a school's inherent placement power, I'm not sure those numbers are actually available.


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Re: Employment Statistics by School - C/O 2019 rolling out + C/O 2012-2017 data

Post by DankHill » Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:48 pm

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Re: Employment Statistics by School - C/O 2019 rolling out + C/O 2012-2017 data

Post by Stranger » Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:24 pm

DankHill wrote:
Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:48 pm
Woo UVA! Love it. What's behind Chicago's huge gain though? They usually absolutely dominate these placements.
Small class size helps them, probably some FedSoc pipeline. But that's still the highest total anyone has had going back at least a decade.

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Re: Employment Statistics by School - C/O 2019 rolling out + C/O 2012-2017 data

Post by DankHill » Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:27 pm

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Re: Employment Statistics by School - C/O 2019 rolling out + C/O 2012-2017 data

Post by icechicken » Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:28 pm

DankHill wrote:
Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:27 pm
Sorry, phrased that poorly. Why did they show a huge year-to-year gain? I was confused because they usually have a very high total in general - what lowered their totals in 2019?
My guess is the pandemic pushing people out of in-house or PI stuff into the safe firm jobs they already had

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Re: Employment Statistics by School - C/O 2019 rolling out + C/O 2012-2017 data

Post by DankHill » Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:29 pm

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Re: Employment Statistics by School - C/O 2019 rolling out + C/O 2012-2017 data

Post by icechicken » Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:32 pm

DankHill wrote:
Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:29 pm
icechicken wrote:
Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:28 pm
DankHill wrote:
Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:27 pm
Sorry, phrased that poorly. Why did they show a huge year-to-year gain? I was confused because they usually have a very high total in general - what lowered their totals in 2019?
My guess is the pandemic pushing people out of in-house or PI stuff into the safe firm jobs they already had
Gotcha. But do you think a significant proportion of people are going in-house straight out of school? My understanding was that it was relatively rare.

Also, I don't want to hijack the thread, so delete this digression if you need to.
Nah it's fair discussion IMO. And yeah, tiny number of people going directly to business roles, but those are exactly the kind of thing that would have dried up in last year's economic environment. In a class of 200 it only takes a dozen people losing their consulting/United Nations/whatever esoteric gigs to create the shift we saw.

In other words, the jump confirms what we already suspected: you're basically guaranteed a firm job out of a T6.

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Re: Employment Statistics by School - C/O 2019 rolling out + C/O 2012-2017 data

Post by DankHill » Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:48 pm

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Re: Employment Statistics by School - C/O 2019 rolling out + C/O 2012-2017 data

Post by pancakes3 » Mon Apr 12, 2021 12:18 pm

a nonsignificant number of companies hire fresh grads. i know telecom regularly hires new grads as do a lot of other heavily regulated industries, especially if the applicant has previous WE working on regulatory matters (hill experience)

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