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Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Posted: Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:10 pm
by Desert Fox
Or at least almost definitely a bar pass. Note, this is only true for states that don't have a minimum score for written parts, and only true for states with a 50% MBE. 40% or lower, MBE is still huge but it's harder to pass by just MBE.

Lets take Illinois for example. You need 264 points to pass and you can get them from MBE or written (which is scaled to match MBE scoring ranges). Here is what the percentiles looked like last july https://www.ilbaradmissions.org/Percent ... lentCharts

If you get a 150 on the MBE (all scores I'm talking about ITT are scaled, raw doesn't matter), then you only need a 114 (264 - 150) on the written. A 150 MBE isn't that hard, it's the 60th percentile and it only covers 6 subjects. For clean cut, standardized test taking naturals like TLSers this should be more than doable.

So how bad is a 114 written? Look at the chart I linked. It's LOWER than bottom 1%.

If you pull off a 160, 82%, you can get a 104 on written. I'm not sure they even give written scores that low.

Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Posted: Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:36 pm
by BlendedUnicorn
insert testimonial here

Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Posted: Tue Feb 13, 2018 7:11 pm
by bigballerbrand
To date, I've done 1400 adaptibar questions with a 82.3% average. Over the last month (~800 questions), I've had a 85.5% average. How good are my chances at passing the Cal Bar this month?

Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Posted: Tue Feb 13, 2018 7:50 pm
by MKC
BlendedUnicorn wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:36 pm
insert testimonial here

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Posted: Tue Feb 13, 2018 7:54 pm
by not very fatduck
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Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Posted: Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:20 pm
by FinallyPassedTheBar
Desert Fox wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:10 pm
Or at least almost definitely a bar pass. Note, this is only true for states that don't have a minimum score for written parts, and only true for states with a 50% MBE. 40% or lower, MBE is still huge but it's harder to pass by just MBE.

Lets take Illinois for example. You need 264 points to pass and you can get them from MBE or written (which is scaled to match MBE scoring ranges). Here is what the percentiles looked like last july https://www.ilbaradmissions.org/Percent ... lentCharts

If you get a 150 on the MBE (all scores I'm talking about ITT are scaled, raw doesn't matter), then you only need a 114 (264 - 150) on the written. A 150 MBE isn't that hard, it's the 60th percentile and it only covers 6 subjects. For clean cut, standardized test taking naturals like TLSers this should be more than doable.

So how bad is a 114 written? Look at the chart I linked. It's LOWER than bottom 1%.

If you pull off a 160, 82%, you can get a 104 on written. I'm not sure they even give written scores that low.

I believe this to be true...even for California, now that the MBE is worth 50% in CA.

Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Posted: Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:23 pm
by FinallyPassedTheBar
bigballerbrand wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 7:11 pm
To date, I've done 1400 adaptibar questions with a 82.3% average. Over the last month (~800 questions), I've had a 85.5% average. How good are my chances at passing the Cal Bar this month?
That's a very good percentage...you have higher percentages than I did, and I passed last Summer in CA.

I think it is time to focus on individual subjects and sub topics. Look for your lowest percentages there, and focus on bring those up.

Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Posted: Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:29 pm
by bigballerbrand
FinallyPassedTheBar wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:23 pm
bigballerbrand wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 7:11 pm
To date, I've done 1400 adaptibar questions with a 82.3% average. Over the last month (~800 questions), I've had a 85.5% average. How good are my chances at passing the Cal Bar this month?
That's a very good percentage...you have higher percentages than I did, and I passed last Summer in CA.

I think it is time to focus on individual subjects and sub topics. Look for your lowest percentages there, and focus on bring those up.
Sounds about right. Contracts (third party rights + remedies specifically) is my weakest topic.

Between my strength at MBE and the amount of work I've put into essays + PT, I feel really good about my chances in two weeks.

Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Posted: Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:54 pm
by Desert Fox
What is the cut score in California.

Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Posted: Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:11 pm
by KernKraft
According to the one-timers calculator, in California, where the cut score is 144, you need a RAW 168/175 on the MBE to auto pass the bar. That means a 183ish scaled on the MBE and 40 on every written part. More doable is probably a 55 on every written part (which means you got a couple of issues right) and a raw 138/175 (scaled 153ish).

Fun fact: you can actually get a 0 on the essays. Yay.
http://www.calbar.ca.gov/Admissions/Examinations/California-Bar-Exam/Description-and-Grading-of-the-California-Bar-Exam wrote:...graders assign raw scores to essay and performance test answers in five-point increments on a scale of 40 to 100. In order to earn a grade of 40, the applicant must at least identify the subject of the question and attempt to apply the law to the facts of the question. If these criteria are not met, the answer is assigned a zero.

Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Posted: Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:13 pm
by ymmv
MKC wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 7:50 pm
BlendedUnicorn wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:36 pm
insert testimonial here
#NotOneEssay bar study CREW

Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Posted: Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:02 pm
by bigballerbrand
KernKraft wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:11 pm
According to the one-timers calculator, in California, where the cut score is 144, you need a RAW 168/200 on the MBE to auto pass the bar. That means a 183ish scaled on the MBE and 40 on every written part. More doable is probably a 55 on every written part (which means you got a couple of issues right) and a raw 138/200 (scaled 153ish).

Fun fact: you can actually get a 0 on the essays. Yay.
http://www.calbar.ca.gov/Admissions/Examinations/California-Bar-Exam/Description-and-Grading-of-the-California-Bar-Exam wrote:...graders assign raw scores to essay and performance test answers in five-point increments on a scale of 40 to 100. In order to earn a grade of 40, the applicant must at least identify the subject of the question and attempt to apply the law to the facts of the question. If these criteria are not met, the answer is assigned a zero.
For what it's worth, I think the input for the MBE score on the One-Timers calculator is actually the raw score out of 175, not 200. He could be wrong, but Joe Seperac reverse-engineered and gave me his guess-timate of my raw MBE score out of 175. When I input that into the calculator (along with my written scores), the calculated score is basically my actual score from July (give or take 2-3 points).

Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Posted: Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:21 pm
by onlyoncemore
I don't even have the balls to dream of auto-pass. But you go, you insane beasts who can! And damn, tell me your secrets.

Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Posted: Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:56 am
by KernKraft
bigballerbrand wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:02 pm
For what it's worth, I think the input for the MBE score on the One-Timers calculator is actually the raw score out of 175, not 200. He could be wrong, but Joe Seperac reverse-engineered and gave me his guess-timate of my raw MBE score out of 175. When I input that into the calculator (along with my written scores), the calculated score is basically my actual score from July (give or take 2-3 points).
Does it mean that we need less than what I estimated using One-Timers or more? It's late and my brain is fried. If you can explain the math for me I would appreciate it.

Anyway, I used Joe Seperac too and his estimate was around 12-13 points less than One-Timers... So confused at this point.

Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Posted: Wed Feb 14, 2018 3:33 am
by bigballerbrand
KernKraft wrote:
Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:56 am
bigballerbrand wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:02 pm
For what it's worth, I think the input for the MBE score on the One-Timers calculator is actually the raw score out of 175, not 200. He could be wrong, but Joe Seperac reverse-engineered and gave me his guess-timate of my raw MBE score out of 175. When I input that into the calculator (along with my written scores), the calculated score is basically my actual score from July (give or take 2-3 points).
Does it mean that we need less than what I estimated using One-Timers or more? It's late and my brain is fried. If you can explain the math for me I would appreciate it.

Anyway, I used Joe Seperac too and his estimate was around 12-13 points less than One-Timers... So confused at this point.
Lol.

Okay, so he told me his guess of my score was 130/175 (or 74.3%). So on the calculator, I'd put in 130 (even though the calculator input box says out of 200) and NOT 149 (which is 74.3% of 200). To match up with my actual bar exam score, I only had to add 3 to the raw MBE input (so 133). Hope that makes sense?

In other words, you might have been over-estimating the number you've been inputting for the MBE score on the calculator since it's (appears to be) out of 175 instead of 200.

Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Posted: Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:29 pm
by KernKraft
bigballerbrand wrote:
Lol.

Okay, so he told me his guess of my score was 130/175 (or 74.3%). So on the calculator, I'd put in 130 (even though the calculator input box says out of 200) and NOT 149 (which is 74.3% of 200). To match up with my actual bar exam score, I only had to add 3 to the raw MBE input (so 133). Hope that makes sense?

In other words, you might have been over-estimating the number you've been inputting for the MBE score on the calculator since it's (appears to be) out of 175 instead of 200.
Sorry for the brain fart. Anyway, yeah that’s what I was actually doing without even thinking about it. I was always putting the number of questions you should get right (out of 175).

However, my Seperac estimate is very different from yours. Weird. What was your MBE scaled score? Around 145?

Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Posted: Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:32 pm
by barkschool
Besides scheduled stuff in barbri regarding written topics/ focus all mbe until at least two weeks outs. I think i started written stuff a week before the bar.

Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Posted: Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:18 pm
by bigballerbrand
KernKraft wrote:
Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:29 pm
bigballerbrand wrote:
Lol.

Okay, so he told me his guess of my score was 130/175 (or 74.3%). So on the calculator, I'd put in 130 (even though the calculator input box says out of 200) and NOT 149 (which is 74.3% of 200). To match up with my actual bar exam score, I only had to add 3 to the raw MBE input (so 133). Hope that makes sense?

In other words, you might have been over-estimating the number you've been inputting for the MBE score on the calculator since it's (appears to be) out of 175 instead of 200.
Sorry for the brain fart. Anyway, yeah that’s what I was actually doing without even thinking about it. I was always putting the number of questions you should get right (out of 175).

However, my Seperac estimate is very different from yours. Weird. What was your MBE scaled score? Around 145?
Okay, good to hear we were on the same page basically haha. I threw away my score report once I got the information... but my MBE scaled score was like 152? 153?

Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Posted: Thu Feb 15, 2018 1:17 pm
by KernKraft
bigballerbrand wrote:
Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:18 pm
KernKraft wrote:
Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:29 pm
bigballerbrand wrote:
Lol.

Okay, so he told me his guess of my score was 130/175 (or 74.3%). So on the calculator, I'd put in 130 (even though the calculator input box says out of 200) and NOT 149 (which is 74.3% of 200). To match up with my actual bar exam score, I only had to add 3 to the raw MBE input (so 133). Hope that makes sense?

In other words, you might have been over-estimating the number you've been inputting for the MBE score on the calculator since it's (appears to be) out of 175 instead of 200.
Sorry for the brain fart. Anyway, yeah that’s what I was actually doing without even thinking about it. I was always putting the number of questions you should get right (out of 175).

However, my Seperac estimate is very different from yours. Weird. What was your MBE scaled score? Around 145?
Okay, good to hear we were on the same page basically haha. I threw away my score report once I got the information... but my MBE scaled score was like 152? 153?
Seperac estimated my raw at 103/175 (yuk) but I got a scaled score of 132, which seems a little off because it means that scaling gave me an extra 29 points. In the chart (below) of raw-scaled conversion that the NCBEX released for the July 2011 exam, the raw-scaled is around 15-20 extra points in that range.

Image

Wow I hate scaling, it makes everything so complicated. Why did they even stop giving out the real raw scores?!

Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Posted: Fri Feb 16, 2018 2:02 pm
by thelawdude
So, newb here. I'm still trying to figure out how scoring works for the bar, but when I read the California Bar Exam Grading policy, I thought that the MBE and Essays were both independently worth 50% of the total score. This is the pertinent section of the grading policy, which I am referring to:

"An applicant’s total score is the scale MBE score (on the 2000-point scale) multiplied by .50 plus the converted score on the written section multiplied by .50. Scaling ensures the two portions of the examination carry the relative weights assigned to them: written (50 percent) and MBE (50 percent)."

Thus, wouldn't it not matter what you score on the MBE once you meet the minimum threshold scaled score (e.g. 1440)?

To summarize, I thought you need to reach baseline scores for both the MBE and the essay in CA, since each part makes up 50% of the total score. I could be wrong. I'd love for someone to explain to me how it works. I'd also like to ask that you explain it as if you were talking to a small child.

Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Posted: Fri Feb 16, 2018 3:01 pm
by soj
i think only your combined score matters.

the cal bar exam site says says your mbe section is scored out of 2000. your written section is given a raw score out of 700, which is then translated to a score out of 2000. the two scores, each out of 2000, are added then halved to come up with your final score, and that's the number that has to be 1440 or greater. you'll pass if you score 1500 on the mbe and 1400 on the written portion.

http://www.calbar.ca.gov/Admissions/Exa ... a-Bar-Exam

Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Posted: Fri Feb 16, 2018 6:09 pm
by KernKraft
thelawdude wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 2:02 pm
To summarize, I thought you need to reach baseline scores for both the MBE and the essay in CA, since each part makes up 50% of the total score. I could be wrong. I'd love for someone to explain to me how it works. I'd also like to ask that you explain it as if you were talking to a small child.
From my understanting, you don't need to "individually pass" each section of the exam (or reach a baseline score for both MBE and written portion). For example, let's say you are a multiple choice freak and get the maximum score on the MBE of 2000/2000. That means that you can even get as low as a 880/2000 on the written portion to pass because (2000+880)/2=1440. Obviously this would work even if you score like crap on the MBE and you are awesome at writing.

Still, it doesn't make the CA bar easier. Otherwise rest assured they would have changed it.

Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Posted: Fri Feb 16, 2018 6:12 pm
by bigballerbrand
KernKraft wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 6:09 pm
thelawdude wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 2:02 pm
To summarize, I thought you need to reach baseline scores for both the MBE and the essay in CA, since each part makes up 50% of the total score. I could be wrong. I'd love for someone to explain to me how it works. I'd also like to ask that you explain it as if you were talking to a small child.
From my understanting, you don't need to "individually pass" each section of the exam (or reach a baseline score for both MBE and written portion). For example, let's say you are a multiple choice freak and get the maximum score on the MBE of 2000/2000. That means that you can even get as low as a 880/2000 on the written portion to pass because (2000+880)/2=1440. Obviously this would work even if you score like crap on the MBE and you are awesome at writing.
This.

I got a 50 on my PT (my fault), but I was 15-20 points away from passing the Bar because of my strength on MBEs.

Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Posted: Sat Feb 17, 2018 1:29 pm
by thelawdude
Thanks SOJ, Kern, and BBB. This is good news.

I'm more confident in my ability to do well on multiple choice than memorizing BLL, so I'm glad there's some room for error.

Re: Strong MBE = AUTO bar pass

Posted: Mon Feb 19, 2018 10:44 pm
by Desert Fox
The beauty of mbe auto pass is that most of the written stuff is mbe topics anyway. On my bar the only 2/9 essays were non mbe topics. And one of those was civ pro, which is how mbe right?